Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 0.014016 0.015888 0.017922 0.020298 0.022998 0.025974 0.029504
2025-04-20 0.011296 0.013918 0.017016 0.020955 0.025834 0.031693 0.039276
2025-04-27 0.009780 0.012749 0.016465 0.021468 0.028043 0.036416 0.047927
2025-05-04 0.008769 0.011972 0.016172 0.022100 0.030279 0.041214 0.057015
2025-05-11 0.007722 0.010969 0.015400 0.021913 0.031287 0.044355 0.064074
2025-05-18 0.006949 0.010226 0.014862 0.021930 0.032492 0.047784 0.071776
2025-05-25 0.006218 0.009448 0.014168 0.021607 0.033110 0.050349 0.078376
2025-06-01 0.005766 0.009027 0.013938 0.021922 0.034671 0.054404 0.087578
2025-06-08 0.005267 0.008475 0.013447 0.021762 0.035443 0.057263 0.095109
2025-06-15 0.005001 0.008263 0.013455 0.022381 0.037492 0.062298 0.106637
2025-06-22 0.004492 0.007604 0.012679 0.021628 0.037182 0.063402 0.111583
2025-06-29 0.004128 0.007152 0.012201 0.021323 0.037583 0.065703 0.118776
2025-07-06 0.003708 0.006573 0.011469 0.020530 0.037089 0.066463 0.123395
2025-07-13 0.003567 0.006472 0.011555 0.021195 0.039269 0.072170 0.137692
2025-07-20 0.003416 0.006336 0.011565 0.021714 0.041214 0.077605 0.151991
2025-07-27 0.003294 0.006243 0.011639 0.022354 0.043435 0.083737 0.168235
2025-08-03 0.003072 0.005940 0.011298 0.022165 0.044028 0.086785 0.178600
2025-08-10 0.002896 0.005711 0.011074 0.022182 0.045021 0.090688 0.191074
2025-08-17 0.002695 0.005414 0.010697 0.021855 0.045281 0.093128 0.200692
2025-08-24 0.002583 0.005287 0.010640 0.022174 0.046899 0.098486 0.217097
2025-08-31 0.002429 0.005060 0.010365 0.022013 0.047482 0.101710 0.229106
2025-09-07 0.002364 0.005015 0.010458 0.022639 0.049815 0.108882 0.250707
2025-09-14 0.002174 0.004686 0.009932 0.021877 0.049020 0.109130 0.256364